Saturday, June 24, 2017

Thoughts on the L.A. Rams 2017 Season

post by Ted

It has caused great pain in my life to remain a St. Louis/L.A. Rams fan for the last many years.  In the last 13 seasons, we've won precisely 68 times...  yes, you read that correctly, 68!  That is to say, a winning percentage around 33% or roughly 5 games per season.  Yikes! 

If that is not a statement in futility, I have no idea what is.

So it's a new year.  Hope springs eternal this time of the year.  We have an entirely new coaching staff.  We are playing our second year in the City of Angels and have eliminated some of the logistical crap that Fisher had to deal with (that's NOT an excuse, btw!). We have some new pieces to the puzzle on what was one of the worst offenses in the league the last two years under head coach Jeff Fisher and offensive coordinator, Rob Boras.

So, with that, I am going to take a look at the three biggest reasons why I believe the Rams will be a dramatically improved team this year.

1.) Sean McVay
He came from the Washington Redskins where he spent 7 years, the last three of those as the offensive coordinator.  Their offense ranked 13th, 17th and then 3rd last year.  I would have liked to see a bit more consistency in those numbers, but they're better than the last 13 years rankings for the Rams.  

Another thing about McVay is what the players are talking about, and that is the positive energy he brings.  Most of the players have described it as "infectious" and opposite of the Jeff Fisher years.  

He has hired Matt LaFleur as his offensive coordinator.  The two worked together in the past at Washington, and have very similar philosophies when it comes to running an offense.  LaFleur spent last season as the Atlanta Falcons QB coach for Matt Ryan, and Ryan had an MVP year.  Note also that McVay and LaFleur were responsible for developing Kirk Cousins!  So McVay will be calling the plays but LaFleur will help implement the offense that McVay wants to run.

On the downside, McVay is the youngest ever head coach in the NFL and obviously, entirely unproven in that role.  However, he is smart enough to check the ego at the door and admit that he needs help in his new role, which brings me to point number two.


2.) Wade Phillips
Wade has around 40 years of coaching experience in the NFL, with 34 of those years as either defensive coordinator or head coach.  There is a GREAT article written by Alden Gonzalez at ESPN (the whole article is worth a read or two!), but check out this little section of it:

"Below is a look at each defense before and after Phillips came in. They're listed with their rankings in defensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), then yards and points allowed, followed by the number of Pro Bowl players from that defense. Phillips, who has coached 30 Pro Bowl players and has been a part of 20 top-10 defenses, started as defensive coordinator at all those stops except Dallas, where he was head coach. His defenses before 1988 are not listed because DVOA was unavailable for them.

2014-15 Denver Broncos
    Before Phillips: 4th in DVOA, 3rd in yards allowed, T-16th in points allowed; 5 Pro Bowlers.
    After Phillips: 1st in DVOA, 1st in yards allowed, 4th in points allowed; 5 Pro Bowlers.

2010-11 Houston Texans
    Before Phillips: 31st in DVOA, 30th in yards allowed, 29th in points allowed; 0 Pro Bowlers.
    After Phillips: 6th in DVOA, 2nd in yards allowed, 4th in points allowed; 2 Pro Bowlers.

2006-07 Dallas Cowboys
    Before Phillips: 14th in DVOA, 13th in yards allowed, 20th in points allowed; 2 Pro Bowlers.
    After Phillips: 9th in DVOA, 9th in yards allowed, 13th in points allowed; 4 Pro Bowlers.

2003-04 San Diego Chargers
    Before Phillips: 30th in DVOA, 27th in yards allowed, 31st in points allowed; 0 Pro Bowlers.
    After Phillips: 13th in DVOA, 18th in yards allowed, 11th in points allowed; 0 Pro Bowlers.

2001-02 Atlanta Falcons
    Before Phillips: 26th in DVOA, 30th in yards allowed, 24th in points allowed; 1 Pro Bowler.
    After Phillips: 12th in DVOA, 19th in yards allowed, 8th in points allowed; 1 Pro Bowler.

1994-95 Buffalo Bills
    Before Phillips: 19th in DVOA, 17th in yards allowed, 22nd in points allowed; 1 Pro Bowler.
    After Phillips: 10th in DVOA, 13th in yards allowed, T-12th in points allowed; 2 Pro Bowlers.

1988-89 Denver Broncos
    Before Phillips: 27th in DVOA, 22nd in yards allowed, 20th in points allowed; 0 Pro Bowlers.
    After Phillips: 4th in DVOA, 3rd in yards allowed, 1st in points allowed; 3 Pro Bowlers.

The Falcons, Chargers, Texans and Broncos (the second time around) each made the transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4 under Phillips.  The Rams will do the same.
"



That is stunning!  The Rams defense under Fisher and DC Gregg Williams was always the Rams strong point, but the offense was so dreadful, that the D was a wreck for the last 1/3 of the season because they were simply out of gas.  

Phillips, out of those 34 seasons, had a top 5 defense 10 times and a top 10 defense 20 years, by my count.  He has the personnel to do it all again!

So if we truly have an offense that isn't truly offensive, the D should be on the field for less snaps and be able to sustain their high level of play for the entire season.

A win-win situation.



3.) The blind side
The Rams biggest improvement on a truly horrific offense, is the situation at left tackle. They traded away Greg "the human turnstile" Robinson last week after acquiring Andrew Whitworth as a free agent from the Cincinnati Bengals.

That is a huge step up in talent and adds a veteran to a line that desperately needed someone to show them how to succeed.  He should be able to provide an extra second for the play to develop which should be a great help for our 2nd year QB, Goff.



That's it for now.  Next, I'll take these things into consideration while examining the Rams 2017 schedule and how I think their year will turn out.

Thanks for reading!




Thursday, June 22, 2017

2017 NBA Mock Draft

The first two picks are 99.99 percent guaranteed but the rest of the top ten is anyone's game.



Markelle Fultz

To the Philadelphia 76ers

Lonzo Ball

To the Los Angeles Lakers 

 

Josh Jackson

To the Boston Celtics

 

Jayson Tatum

To the Phoenix Suns

 

De'Aaron Fox

To the Sacramento Kings

 

Dennis Smith Jr

To the Orlando Magic

 

Jonathan Isacc

To the Minnesota Timberwolves

 

Frank Ntilikina

To the New York Knicks

 

Lauri Markkanen 

To the Dallas Mavericks 

Luke Kennard

To the Sacramento Kings

 

 

 

What are the Celtics Doing in the NBA Draft?

If you don't know the Celtics traded down to #3 in the draft from #1. Everybody thought that Markelle Fultz was the future of the Boston Celtics. Now he is the future of the 76ers. Since Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball are everybody's consensus #1 and #2 picks, this leaves 3 people left that could be taken in the third spot. Deaaron Fox, Josh Jackson, and Jayson Tatum. We will go through the 3 players and discuss pros and cons and at the end decide who it is going to be a Celtic.

Deaaron Fox

The most explosive player in the draft the 6 ft 3 inch point guard is hard to pass on. He attacks the rim with speed and force and is a dogged defender. His jumpshot may struggle but Russell Westbrook doesn't have the best jumpshot and we saw him post a Triple-Double average the entire season. Deaaron might not be the best fit for the Celtics because they have Isaiah Thomas. The only reason I see the Celtics drafting Fox is if they don't want to pay a 5 ft 9 inch guy 100,000,000 when he is about out of his prime. But Isaiah Thomas has proved to people again and again that he is worth a lot of money.


Josh Jackson 

A dominant 6 ft 8 inch forward its very easy to see why the Celtics would take him. Being teammates with Frank Mason might help him prepare for what would happen if the Celtics did draft him because of Isaiah Thomas. Jackson can give 15 points and stellar defense while giving teammates confidence as well. The Celtics main problem last year was nobody could stop LeBron and defense was gone. Isaiah Thomas is a liability on defense because of his height. Al Horford won't make LeBron think twice about attacking the rim. Amir Johnson is an average defender on a good night. Avery Bradley cannot guard Kyrie and LeBron at the same time. He might not even be able to guard LeBron alone. Josh Jackson strengthens there defense and might even give them an edge.

 

Jayson Tatum

A 6 ft 8 inch forward able to dunk on a 11 foot rim and can dunk while wearing armor is pretty impressive. With similar measurements to Jackson, Tatum brings explosive offense they need so Isaiah Thomas doesn't have to score 30 for the Celtics to have a chance. Tatum also has played along stars at Duke that could prepare him for Isaiah Thomas and the Celtics. He also does not have to be the number one option, and has played along stars like Luke Kennard and Grayson Allen. 


Verdict

While everyone has tremendous upside, I think the Celtics will pick Josh Jackson with the #3 pick in the 2017 NBA draft.







Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Superbowl Predictions!

Every year, Robby and I find it fun to make our initial Superbowl predictions after free agency and the draft has concluded.  And so, with the advent of our new blog, we'll do it publicly this time so as the embarrassment can be cast upon us from anywhere in the world instead of just making fun of each other for our ridiculous predictions!

What we're going to do is make our predictions now and revisit them at the following points;  
1.) After training camps and based on the injuries that happen
2.) After the preseason games and final rosters are set
3.) And after every team has played 8 games (**note** - I haven't to see which week that is, but logically speaking, it should be after week 9).


So here we go!
Robby's picks:
NFC Championship game:
Tampa Bay  vs.  Dallas


AFC Championship game:
New England  vs.  Oakland


Superbowl (2002 Redux!!):
Oakland vs. Tampa Bay with Tampa Bay winning it all!!




Teddy's picks  (I am inclined to go Patriots all the way thru since I believe they have gotten better this off-season!   But, I can't):
NFC Championship game:
Tampa Bay vs. Dallas  (at Dallas)


AFC Championship game:
Oakland  vs.  Texans  (at Oakland)


Superbowl:
Oakland  vs. Dallas with Dallas winning it all!!

Saturday, June 3, 2017

Kaepernick: Blackballed Or Just More Non-sense From The Media

Post by Ted

I have been a faithful reader of Profootballtalk.nbcsports.com for many years now.  I know that the website's original writer (if not the creator of the site), Mike Florio, gets on a tangent now and then.  When he does, there becomes a deluge of posts relating to that particular subject, for maybe a month, sometimes longer.

One of the longer running obsessions from Florio is his apparent dislike of journeyman QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick,  and the constant put downs/slags/other nonsense about the man and his talents.

Best QB ever?  Nope.

Even an upper tier/game changing QB?  Nope and probably not, respectively.

However, Florio and his henchmen, Michael David Smith, Josh Alpers, Curtis Crabtree, Darin Gantt, have written piles upon piles of articles with wild donkey guesses about why Colin Kaepernick is still unemployed (end of May) this far into free agency.  Occasionally, you'll even get a post that suggests something nefarious about Kaps unemployment AND a dig at Fitz.

Why?  Dunno...  With the way that Profootballtalk has propped up Kap would suggest that, at worst, someone associated with them has a financial interest in his gainful employment (pure speculation on my part!) or at best, he's good click-bait to gain money from the ad placements on the side of their page.

Either way, for a player of Kaps stature, it's getting embarrassing!

Lets look at some stats.  I've eliminated Kaps 2011 stats as he only played in 3 games with 3 completions on 5 attempts.  I've also eliminated the 2006/2007 seasons for Fitz as he played in only 1 game per season with zero attempts passing in late game mop-up duty. 

Here we are:



Obviously from looking at the chart, Fitz has played twice as many seasons as Kap.  So lets double some of Kaps numbers, giving him the benefit of the doubt, since the teams he played on were arguably better than most of the teams that any journeyman QB would be part of, including Fitz.

Total games played:    Kap   132        Fitz     127
Games started:           Kap   116        Fitz     116
Total Completions:      Kap 2016        Fitz    2315
Total Attempts:          Kap  3374       Fitz    3876
Completion Percent     Kap   59.8       Fitz    59.7
Total Yards:               Kap 24472      Fitz   25888
Total TD's:                 Kap    144       Fitz     166
Total Interceptions:     Kap     60       Fitz     133
Rating:                      Kap   88.9       Fitz    79.7

So after looking at these numbers, what do you think?  I know what I think but I'd like to hear comments, rebuttals, arguments and whatever else in the comments.

I think they are very similar QB's even though one has played twice as long as the other and when Kap gets another chance, things could end up very differently. However, since he chose to kneel for the National Anthem last year in protest (which is his right and I support his right to do it),  I suspect that Kap will end up as a journeyman QB much like Fitz and his numbers will be not as good.  Remember, he played on some 49'ers teams with Jim Harbaugh as coach and went to the NFC Championship game 3 times in a row, and the Superbowl once.

Also, when considering stats, Fitz is pretty much a classic "pocket passer" QB while Kap was part of the new wave of pulling-it-down-and-running-with-it QB's.  I know that Kaps running stats are far and away greater for one year than Fitz's entire career, but we're talking about why Kap doesn't have a job and why Fitz does.

Any GM worth his proverbial salt will recognize the fact that running QB's in the NFL seem to  have a much shorter shelf-life than pocket-passers and they would be nuts NOT to consider that when looking at signing these two individuals.

That is my opinion on why Fitz is gainfully employed and Kap is on the outside looking in.  Yes, his protest last year probably has a small percentage of a roll in his unemployment, but it's certainly not THE deciding factor.


To make my point a bit more clear, here are the posts (not all of them, mind you) about Kaepernick (and sometimes Fitzgerald) that were posted on Profootballtalk.com in the month of May only.  Sorry for the lack of links!!  I screwed them up getting started and had so many listed that I didn't want to go back and changed them...  I promise to do better in the future.


Micheal David Smith:
May 30th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/30/torrey-smith-goes-to-bat-for-colin-kaepernick/
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/30/report-seahawks-not-expected-to-sign-colin-kaepernick/

May 29th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/29/john-mara-says-signing-colin-kaepernick-would-lead-to-fan-backlash/

May 26th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/26/eric-mangini-would-vouch-for-colin-kaepernick-if-a-team-asked/

May 23rd:
More comments suggesting that the "writers" at ProFootballTalk.com know that Kaepernick is being black-balled:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/23/goodell-still-doesnt-think-colin-kaepernick-is-being-blackballed/

May 18th:
Former head coach Tony Dungy supplies a bit of much needed common sense:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/18/tony-dungy-if-teams-saw-colin-kaepernick-as-a-starter-theyd-sign-him/
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/18/hamilton-tiger-cats-have-cfl-rights-to-kaepernick-manziel-rgiii/


May 16th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/16/seahawks-reached-out-to-colin-kaepernicks-agent-on-friday/

May 9th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/09/colin-kaepernick-wants-to-play-hopes-to-be-in-a-training-camp/


Josh Alper:May 30th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/30/rams-add-a-third-quarterback-to-the-roster/

May 15th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/15/pete-carroll-were-considering-colin-kaepernick-rgiii-as-backup-options/


Curtis Crabtree:
May 17th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/17/trainer-says-colin-kaepernick-preparing-like-hes-still-a-starting-quarterback/


Darin Gantt:
May 30th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/30/report-nothing-is-imminent-between-seahawks-and-colin-kaepernick/

May 24th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/24/seahawks-looking-at-austin-davis-along-with-colin-kaepernick/

May 24th:
More 3rd grade'ish snotty comments suggesting the "highly-talented" one is being black-balled:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/24/report-seahawks-expected-to-work-out-colin-kaepernick-others/

May 16th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/17/trainer-says-colin-kaepernick-preparing-like-hes-still-a-starting-quarterback/

May 1st:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/01/philadelphia-wants-to-host-the-2026-super-bowl/


Mike Florio:May31st:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/31/john-lynch-49ers-would-have-cut-kaepernick-if-he-hadnt-opted-out/

May 27th:
This one at least mentions a few other unemployed QB's:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/27/jim-caldwell-isnt-interested-in-kaepernick-but-believes-in-him/

May 27th:
Nothing more than "click-bait" here, which I'm assuming is the primary reason for the flood of Kaepernick reports:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/27/spike-lee-is-0-for-1-as-nfl-reporter/

May 26th:
And BOOM!  An article about the future emplyment of a former head coach, which contains the last paragraph with a mention of how the NFL inept Kelly could help ProFootballTalk.com's source of "click-bait" revenue:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/26/espn-hires-chip-kelly/

May 25th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/25/kaepernicks-seattle-trip-was-a-visit-only-not-a-workout/

May 24th:
More of Florio presenting his own opinion as fact, but coming off as more of a personnel spokesman from a company/agency with lots of money wanting to promote a high-profile candidate.  The primary article is about Kenny Stills, yet, the focus?  You decide:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/24/kenny-stills-on-possible-2017-anthem-protest-well-see-when-the-time-comes/

May 20th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/20/kenny-stills-expresses-support-colin-kaepernick/

May 19th:
One of Florio's MANY shots at QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and even lower in the article, a back-handed slap at Fitz after saying he may be more of a "mentor" to Winston:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/19/buccaneers-didnt-consider-colin-kaepernick-as-jameis-winston-backup/

May 16th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/16/leak-of-seahawks-sudden-interest-in-kaepernick-sparks-some-cynicism/

May 13th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/13/colin-kaepernick-speaks-to-shannon-sharpe/

May 12th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/12/kaepernick-has-received-zero-inquiries/

May 11th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/11/harry-edwards-three-teams-have-inquired-about-kaepernick/
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/11/the-colin-kaepernick-alternative-facts-continue-to-percolate/

May 10th:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/10/colin-kaepernick-helps-kids-know-their-rights-and-their-identities/
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/10/free-agency-rules-change-today/
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